Many projects do not run as planned. Many projects in particular are not completed on time. But why is that?
What is planning fallacy?
One root cause is planning fallacy, a cognitive bias that causes people to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of completing a project. The planning fallacy can lead to extraneous costs and schedule delays, as well as sub-optimal project outcomes.
How can it be?
Planning fallacy exists because of the optimism bias. We tend to put more weight on optimistic views over negative ones because we want things to turn out positively for us. So people think they need less time to finish tasks because they wish it was true; it’s the desirable outcome: Our brains may be wired by evolution to see the glass half-full.
How to avoid?
Now that you know about the problem: How could you avoid it? You could:
- Plan in small iterations
Use Scrum and plan in Sprints: The Sprint is a short iteration, less than a month. This reduces the frame in wich time, costs, and risks could be underestimated. - Take an outside view
Don’t base your estimates on your own frame of reference. Instead, look at similar projects and how long they took to complete. This will give you a more realistic idea of how long your project will take. - Define your priorities
It’s easy to get excited with a new project and to add a thousand tasks to your to-do list. However, it’s important to define your priorities and focus on the most important tasks first. - Perform a pre-mortem
A pre-mortem is a technique where you imagine that your project has failed and then work backwards to identify the reasons why. This can help you identify potential problems before they occur and take steps to prevent them.
Feedback
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Sources:
- Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1977). “Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures” (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on September 8, 2013. Decision Research Technical Report PTR-1042-77-6. In Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1982). “Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures”. In Kahneman, Daniel; Slovic, Paul; Tversky, Amos (eds.). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science. Vol. 185. pp. 414–421. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511809477.031. ISBN978-0511809477. PMID17835457.